CURRENT AFFAIRS: Ukraine Peace Negotiations

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Intensified diplomatic efforts for a peace agreement for Ukraine

Late 2025 and early 2026 witnessed a marked acceleration in diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the nearly four-year full-scale war in Ukraine. While the November US-Russia 28-point peace plan, perceived to heavily favour Russia and disadvantage Ukraine, initially cast a shadow, December brought a surprisingly positive shift. The original plan was superseded by a revised 20-point proposal, developed by the Ukrainian government in collaboration with its European partners, offering a pathway towards a just and lasting peace, grounded in the principles of the United Nations Charter.

High-level diplomatic engagement and negotiations

A flurry of high-level talks ensued: discussions between European leaders in Berlin (15 December), a meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents at Mar-a-Lago followed by a videoconference with European leaders (29 December), consultations with national security advisors and chiefs of staff in Kyiv (3-5 January), and finally a pivotal meeting between the leaders of the coalition of the willing with representatives of the Ukrainian and US administrations in Paris (6 January). These intense negotiations resulted in an agreement on the core elements of a peace framework, including – crucially for Ukraine – robust security guarantees to be activated upon the implementation of a ceasefire.

The Paris Declaration and European commitments

The 35 signatories of the Paris Declaration affirmed that ‘Ukraine's ability to defend itself is critically important for ensuring the future of Ukraine's and Euro-Atlantic collective security’, and pledged to:

  1. monitor and verify the ceasefire, under the oversight of the United States;
  2. provide sustained long-term military and technical support to the Ukrainian army;
  3. respond decisively to any further hostile actions by Russia;
  4. deploy international forces to assist Ukraine in maintaining security (including border protection) and stabilising the region following the ceasefire; and
  5. engage in enduring defence cooperation with Kyiv.

In parallel, at its meeting on 18-19 December, the European Council demonstrated its full determination to support Ukraine’s military efforts. Citing the ‘enhanced cooperation’ provisions of Article 20 of the Treaty on European Union, the Council pledged to provide a EUR 90 billion aid package to be financed through EU borrowing on capital markets. The loan would cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s military and budgetary needs for 2026 and 2027, and would be repaid once Ukraine receives reparations from Russia.

Prior to this, on 12 December, the European Council resolved to freeze the assets of the Central Bank of Russia indefinitely until Russia stops the war and pays due reparations to Ukraine. This unprecedented decision was made under Article 122(1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, which requires a qualified majority rather than unanimity – a smart way to strip the countries sceptical about supporting Ukraine (particularly Hungary) of the ability to use the threat of a veto power to secure a privileged negotiating position on other matters.

Obstacles to peace and the broader implications

The agreement forged within the Ukraine-US-Europe triangle represents a significant step towards a peace process, bolstering Ukraine’s negotiating leverage. However, actually achieving peace hinges on the will of the aggressor, Russia, which continues to escalate attacks on critical infrastructure and residential areas, killing civilians and depriving countless residents of electricity, heat and water. Russia’s territorial demands, opposition to any military presence of NATO countries in Ukraine and refusal to agree to a ceasefire do not inspire optimism.  Sustained pressure on Russia therefore remains imperative. The participants of the EESC EU-Ukraine Civil Society Platform (CSP) urged the EU to take action, particularly by adopting the 20th sanctions package. Their Declaration, published on 11 December, calls for targeting all Russian banks without exception, and a complete cessation of imports of oil, gas and oil products from the Russian Federation, including deliveries via pipelines or shipments via third countries.

Achieving peace on the terms outlined in the 20-point plan, supplemented by the Paris security guarantees, would signify a triumph of democratic principles over aggressive, authoritarian imperialism. It would send a strong message that aggression and violations of international law will not be tolerated, helping to deter future conflicts and uphold the rules-based international order. The immediate practical implications for Europe would be enhanced security and stabilised energy and commodity prices, as well as reduced border and economic tensions. Politically, a successful peace process involving European diplomacy would further strengthen European solidarity and enhance Europe’s role as a global actor. It would, crucially for the millions of refugees and internally displaced Ukrainians, open the prospect of returning home to be reunited with their families and participate in reconstruction, recovery and development efforts supported by the international community. Peace would pave the way for Ukraine’s closer integration with the EU and eventual membership, offering significant economic and political benefits.

 

Ewa KULIK-BIELIŃSKA (Poland)

Member, EESC EU-Ukraine Civil Society Platform

Member, EESC Civil Society Organisations' Group

Co-founder, Senior expert, Polish Donors’ Forum

© EU/EESC