Enlargement and climate policy: a business case for a competitive and climate-neutral Europe

Enlargement is a geopolitical imperative for the European Union. However, its potential impact on EU climate policies has remained under the radar. As the European Union moves towards its 2040 climate target and climate neutrality by 2050, we must consider how they are achieved in a larger union of potentially over 30 Member States. In our Opinion on Enlargement and EU climate policy, we highlight the need to integrate enlargement fully into Europe’s climate strategy.

Enlargement must be factored into climate policy

From the Employers' Group perspective, the key message is clear: enlargement can help Europe achieve its climate goals, strengthen energy security and enhance competitiveness. To succeed, the transition must be managed pragmatically, predictably and in close partnership with business and industry.

The countries most likely to join the EU in the coming years, Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans, currently account for around 10-15 % of European greenhouse gas emissions. Failing to prepare these countries for the EU climate framework could make it more difficult to achieve the Union’s climate objectives for 2040 and 2050. At the same time, their modernisation offers a unique opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation across Europe. 

This means climate and enlargement policies must go hand in hand. Early alignment of candidate countries with EU energy, climate and industrial policies can reduce future compliance costs, create a more level playing field and provide greater certainty for investors. Furthermore, candidate countries have significant potential for cost-effective emissions reductions, which can drive down the overall costs of the transition.

Climate ambition can go together with competitiveness

The Employers' Group strongly supports a climate transition that preserves Europe’s industrial base and creates economic opportunities. Candidate countries have significant potential in clean energy, critical raw materials, clean technologies and energy infrastructure. Their integration can strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy, support supply chain resilience and contribute to lower energy costs in the long term. 

To unlock this potential, businesses need predictability.  The EESC’s call for the European Commission to clarify how EU climate targets and baselines will be calculated in an enlarged Union is essential to map the landscape for the coming decades. Clear rules are guideposts for investment planning and business confidence. 

Ukraine: reconstruction as a strategic opportunity

The Opinion highlights Ukraine as a special case. Reconstruction following Russia’s war of aggression coincides with the country’s path towards EU accession and deep decarbonisation. Building on close dialogue with candidate country representatives, including Ukrainian employer representatives, the EESC views Ukraine’s recovery as an opportunity to build a modern, low-carbon economy while strengthening Europe’s energy resilience and industrial capacity.

Ukraine has already demonstrated its capacity to keep the lights on during the war not only within Ukraine but also in its neighbouring EU countries by being a net exporter of electricity. With its strong nuclear fleet and expanding renewable potential, a reconstructed Ukraine can emerge as a European clean energy powerhouse.

For us, supporting climate-aligned reconstruction is a strategic investment in Europe’s future competitiveness. Rebuilding energy, industrial and transport infrastructure according to modern standards can create new markets, attract private investment and support sustainable growth across the continent. 

Supporting the transition through investment and innovation

A part of EU’s 2040 climate target can be achieved by supporting climate action outside the EU through International credits. The EESC considers candidate countries should be given a priority in these new partnerships. International credits could serve as a tool to channel investment into decarbonisation of candidate countries, eventually contributing directly to EU climate targets.

We support pragmatic solutions that mobilise investment where it delivers the greatest impact. Early climate investments in candidate countries can reduce future adjustment costs, help modernise industries and accelerate the adoption of clean technologies.

The Opinion also stresses the importance of integrating candidate countries into European energy markets, supporting adoption of carbon pricing mechanisms and strengthening monitoring and reporting systems. These measures can help businesses in candidate countries operate within a more predictable regulatory environment while advancing Europe’s climate objectives.

A just transition that works for businesses, workers and society

Finally, the EESC underlines that climate success in an enlarged Union will depend on public acceptance and social dialogue. Employers, trade unions, civil society and public authorities must all be involved in shaping and implementing the transition in candidate countries.

Particular attention should be given to skills, workforce adaptation and support for SMEs, farmers and rural communities. Reducing administrative burdens, improving access to innovation and ensuring fair market conditions will be essential to maintain competitiveness while advancing climate goals.

Achieving climate targets in a larger EU presents challenges, but even greater opportunities. For the Employers' Group, EU enlargement can be a powerful driver of decarbonisation, competitiveness and long-term prosperity for Europe.

By Teppo SÄKKINEN, EESC Employers' Group member and Rapporteur of Opinion NAT/984 Enlargement and EU Climate Policy – Achieving the EU Climate Targets in a larger union.