By Stefano Mallia, president of the Employers' Group in the European Economic and Social Committee

With the wisdom of the past two decades and seven waves of enlargement since the beginning of the European project, it would probably be appropriate to celebrate the anniversary of the ‘big bang’ enlargement of 2004 with facts and figures to dispel emotional debates ahead of the EU elections in June.

The three-year-long war in Ukraine has pushed the issue of enlargement to the forefront of the European geopolitical agenda. The candidate status that was quickly conferred on Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia, as well as the accession negotiations that have finally been opened with North Macedonia and Albania, are positive breakthroughs for a policy which has stalled for years.

To make sure this new momentum stays the course, we should set straight the business case.

Of course, democratisation and the rule of law are untouchable principles, as is the merit-based approach of the enlargement process, which affords no shortcuts. But, at the end of the day, people must be reassured of the potential economic gains and prosperity for the next generation of Europeans.

If the past offers any indication of the future, we can safely say that the business case is indisputable. Trade between old and new Member States grew almost threefold during the formal pre-accession process from 1994 to 2004, and fivefold among the new Member States themselves. The EU-15 of the time grew on average by 4% annually from the start of the accession process to 2008, with the accession process contributing half of this growth, generating 3 million new jobs between 2002 and 2008.

COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have demonstrated that the EU needs to rethink its economic resilience, particularly in the context of the green and digital transitions. REPowerEU envisages a ramping up of European renewable energy production. The Net-Zero Industry Act and the Critical Raw Materials Act call for 40% of green and raw material value chains to be diverted to the EU. EU accession candidates, particularly Ukraine, can play an important role, providing greater economic security.

When it comes to natural resources, Ukraine holds the largest gas reserves in Europe, after Norway. It also produces some of the largest quantities of hydropower in Europe and could increase its production along with other green energy sources such as wind, solar and biomass. Ukraine has also been a major metals exporter and is home to lithium and rare earth deposits, which are crucial for the green and digital industries.

At the same time, Ukraine’s agricultural industry is one of the biggest in the world. Its integration into the single market would substantially increase the EU’s food security.

The benefits for Western Balkans countries of increased participation in the single market are also crystal clear. As an indication, Croatia’s GDP has increased steadily since it joined the EU in 2013, translating into higher incomes for its citizens, with an average increase in per capita GDP of 67% (up from EUR 10 440 in 2013 to more than EUR 17 240).

The road to EU membership for up to nine new countries will be tortuous, but there is no other alternative: if the EU wants to be a global power, it needs to be a local power first.