Praised as a historic milestone upon its adoption in May 2024, the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum has yet to prove its worth. But the challenges awaiting it in 2025 will not be easy: in an exceptionally uncertain geopolitical environment, the Pact’s inherent complexity and the tight deadline for its implementation will require caution and lots of balancing - an analysis by Camille Le Coz of the Migration Policy Institute Europe (MPI Europe)

By Camille Le Coz 

The start of 2025 brings pressing questions about the future of migration policies in the European Union (EU). The new European Commission has set a clear course with its implementation plan for the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, yet shifting circumstances threaten to divert political focus and resources elsewhere. Germany’s upcoming elections have added a layer of uncertainty, alongside the fallout from the Assad regime’s collapse and the unpredictable trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Discussions around externalisation models continue, but these efforts often run as isolated political manoeuvres rather than as part of a cohesive European strategy. Meanwhile, migration remains weaponised at the Polish border with Belarus, with this instrumentalisation increasingly leading to deviations from EU law. This year will be pivotal in determining whether the European Union can pursue an approach that fosters confidence and delivers much-needed collective action, or whether it will face further fragmentation.

In May 2024, many European policymakers hailed the adoption of the Pact as a historic milestone, after years of arduous negotiations. Just ahead of the European elections, this agreement showed the bloc’s ability to unite and tackle some of its most challenging issues. Central to the Pact’s goals were addressing tensions over responsibility and solidarity, resolving the perception of a perpetual migration crisis, and harmonising discrepancies in asylum procedures across the Member States. While the new framework largely builds on the existing system, it introduces stricter measures, such as systematic screening, enhanced border asylum and return procedures, and exceptions to common rules during a crisis. The Pact also upholds greater Europeanisation, featuring mandatory solidarity, enhanced roles for EU institutions and agencies, and increased European funding and oversight.

This boost in the EU’s credibility when it comes to managing migration as a bloc could, however, be short-lived if Europeans fail to implement the new rules by May 2026. This tight deadline is particularly challenging as the Pact requires the establishment of a complex system, resource mobilisation, and the recruitment and training of staff—especially for those Member States on the front line. While Member States have drafted national action plans, much of this work has been done behind closed doors, with a lack of political messaging. This gap poses an increasing risk, as political steering is crucial for maintaining the fragile equilibrium at the EU level.

Moreover, the implementation of the new system requires the formation of coalitions of stakeholders. National asylum agencies are central to translating complex legislative texts into practical frameworks, with EU agencies—particularly the EU Agency for Asylum—already playing a pivotal role in this process. Equally important is the involvement of non-governmental organisations in order to harness their expertise and ensure access to legal counselling and oversight of the new procedures, among other things. To support these efforts, more collaborative approaches are needed, including regular consultations, robust information-sharing mechanisms, and operational task forces that convene regularly.

Meanwhile, significant attention has turned toward externalisation strategies, with an increasing number of European capitals viewing these as fixes to the EU’s migration challenges. The Italy-Albania deal has sparked numerous debates about its potential to better manage mixed migration, positioning Giorgia Meloni as a leading figure in this area across Europe. However, it has not yet yielded any results, and remains a bilateral agreement, excluding contributions from other European partners. In the meantime, other governments are coming up with other, alternative models, such as return hubs, and ways to integrate them into an EU-wide approach.

Return is precisely set to take centre stage in the political debate in the coming months. Indeed, part of the Pact hinges on improving the speed of returns, especially for individuals undergoing border procedures in frontline states. The Commission and Member States seek to tackle this urgency while leaving space to pilot return hubs, with proposals to review the Return Directive expected in March. Given the short timeline, the risk is that Europeans fail to fully reflect on the lessons learned from the ground, despite the progress made over the past decade in areas such as outreach, counselling, reintegration support, and mutual learning at the EU level. Moreover, Europe needs to be cautious that experimenting with externalisation models does not damage its relationships with countries of origin and weaken its broader standing.

This delicate balancing act is unfolding in an exceptionally uncertain environment, positioning the implementation of the Pact as a test not only for migration management but also for the broader EU project. The situation at the Polish border, in particular, highlights specific challenges in upholding binding rules under the pressure of a hostile neighbour. With regard to Syria and Ukraine, European capitals need to be prepared for unforeseen developments. In the year ahead, it will be crucial to foster strong leadership at the EU level in order to implement new rules and continue exploring innovations that align with and strengthen a joint approach. This involves focusing efforts on building resilient partnerships with priority countries and avoiding the diversion of resources to political tricks.

Camille Le Coz is Associate Director at the Migration Policy Institute Europe, a Brussels-based research institute seeking more effective management of immigration, immigrant integration, and asylum systems as well as successful outcomes for newcomers, families of immigrant background, and receiving communities.