The EU should take a bolder approach to long‑term planning, with stress‑tested scenarios and a stronger role for civil society

The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) has welcomed the European Commission’s 2025 Strategic Foresight Report (SFR) but is urging the EU to take a far more ambitious approach to long-term preparedness.

In its opinion on the SFR, the EESC warns that the report remains too close to existing political trajectories and does not sufficiently consider possible external disruptions, the EU’s innovation gaps, internal institutional challenges and the costs of delaying EU enlargement, which could all potentially reshape Europe’s future. 

‘Strategic foresight should primarily support sustainable and inclusive well-being as part of the European social model. At the same time, it should take into account the current fragmentation of European capital markets, which severely constrains the efficient flow of capital to firms of all sizes, limiting innovation for SMEs and microenterprises’, rapporteur Philip von Brockdorff said.

The EESC also calls for a more structured role for organised civil society in the EU’s foresight cycle. 

In its opinion, the EESC has called for a much sharper strategic edge and has issued several specific recommendations, such as moving beyond simply projecting current trends and instead exploring a range of alternative futures, including disruptive and pessimistic scenarios, while being more transparent about its methods and assumptions. 

It recommends that the European Commission should address areas where the EU is lagging behind global competitors and where regulation may hinder innovation, warning that failure to do so risks weakening Europe’s position. Strengthening the Savings and Investments Union is crucial to improving capital flow, especially for SMEs, alongside the creation of EU-wide resilience metrics to support better policymaking. 

It also calls for greater attention to smaller businesses and less-developed regions, a more strategic approach to labour migration given demographic decline, and an examination of the EU’s own governance systems in light of technological change and potential enlargement. Finally, it stresses the importance of incorporating detailed scenarios on climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, including the costs of inaction and potential regulatory responses.

The Strategic Foresight Report is the EU’s annual examination of global megatrends and long-term developments likely to influence the EU up to 2040. (ll)