Civil society is, in short, groups of communities capable of self-organising and defining and achieving selected objectives. In democratic systems, civil society groups are numerous and diverse in order to represent the diversity of voices and opinions of their members as much as possible. In non-democratic regimes, NGOs are most often in opposition to the rulers. Civil society can act through active citizenship and a desire to cooperate for the common good, independently of state institutions.

When PiS was in power, civil society organisations mobilised against changes that were detrimental to the country’s system of government and protection of human rights. From 2016 to 2022, as shown in the report Pressure and mobilisation: Civil society and the rule of law crisis from the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, non-governmental communities organised many mass protests in defence of the rule of law and against violation of constitutional values, and offered legal assistance to groups at risk of discrimination or repression. The non-governmental sector has continued to seek new channels to participate in decision-making processes, including through organising effective coalitions for electing the Commissioner for Human Rights and the Ombudsman for Children’s Rights, and citizens’ panels.

The results of the parliamentary elections held on 15 October 2023 are a testament to the strength of civil society in Poland. The historic voter turnout of 74.38% and opposition groups gaining the electoral advantage are proof of the effective civic mobilisation that has led to a change of government. The Law and Justice party’s (PiS) candidates obtained 35.38% of the votes. In doing so, this party was the first since 1989 to win parliamentary elections for the third time in a row, but, unlike the 2015 and 2019 elections, its list of candidates did not obtain majority of the seats needed to form a government. Political groups also entering the Sejm were: the Citizens’ Coalition (30.7%), Third Way PSL-PL (14.4%), New Left (8.61%) and Confederation Freedom and Independence (7.16%). Three coalition groups – Civic Coalition, Third Way PSL-PL and the New Left – won a total of 51.72% of the votes, which gave them the majority necessary to form a government. The government with Donald Tusk as Prime Minister was formed after an initial failed attempt by PiS.

None of the surveys predicted such a high turnout. As a reminder, it was 61.74% in the 2019 parliamentary elections and 62.7% in the historical elections of 1989. The results of surveys (e.g. CBOS and the Batory Foundation) show that the desire for change, brought about by the long-standing frustration of society, motivated citizens to head to the ballot box. It should be noted that strong social mobilisation could be seen before the elections, which included: the record number of voters who registered to vote from outside their place of residence (by 15:00 on 12 October 960 000 people changed their polling station and around 1 200 000 requested to do so). The number of Poles living abroad who registered to vote almost doubled (around 600 000, compared to 350 000 in the 2019 elections).

The announcement and holding of a nationwide referendum could have been another factor in the increased civic mobilisation for the parliamentary elections. Turnout for the referendum was 40.91%, it was therefore non-binding. Another important factor in this mobilisation were the numerous actions undertaken by NGOs to encourage voter turnout. Those aimed at women and young people (e.g. It’s Your Choice from the Women’s Voices Initiative, We’re Done Being Quiet from the Wschód [East] Initiative or It’s Your Decision from SexEd), which contributed to the increased voter turnout, are worth noting in particular. In the 2019 parliamentary elections 61.5% of women voted and 60.8% of men. The turnout among young people aged 18-29 was 46.4%. More women (73.7%) than men (72.0%) and 68.8% of young people (18-29) voted in the 2023 elections. Community-based organisations carried out at least 20 campaigns in the run-up to the elections to encourage people to vote.

The campaigns were mainly carried out on the internet, but some were also on TV, radio and even in cinemas. The involvement of celebrities, influencers, actors and public figures increased their ability to reach different audiences. According to the CBOS survey Electoral motives and decisions 2023, conducted in October 2023, the majority of voters (around 70%) decided on their vote at least a few weeks before the elections. The rest did so later – in the last week before the elections (28%), only on election day (9%) or on the day before the elections (4%). The group’s relationship with the European Union was particularly important for Civic Coalition (KO) voters (80%). The desire for a change in leadership was mentioned almost as frequently as a reason for voting for the KO (77%). A large share of the voters for this grouping (64%) felt that it represented values and principles that were close to them. PiS voters felt that this party represented both their interests (‘cares about people like them’ – 66%) and their values and principles (62%). At the same time, they had a positive opinion of this group’s leadership so far (64%) and its economic programme (59%).

In June 2024 Poles will go to the polls to elect their Members of the European Parliament. The EP elections can be seen as another phase of an electoral cycle that kicked off in 2023 with the parliamentary elections, as local elections will take place in Poland in April 2024. The topic of Europe will be present in local government campaigns, albeit to a lesser extent than during parliamentary elections. Moreover, the 20th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the EU may have an influence on the turnout in the European elections. Remember – for the last EP elections in 2019 the voter turnout in Poland was 45.68%.

Polish people are strongly in favour of their country being part of the European Union. According to the April 2023 CBOS study, 85% approve of EU membership. This number has decreased, but it remains very high. 10% are against Polish presence in the EU, and 5% have no opinion on the subject.

We should also remember that this is the first time the European Parliament elections will be taking place in the shadow of a polycrisis: e.g. the ongoing war in Ukraine, the climate crisis, the economic crisis, the rise of the populist right. Therefore, in view of the expected intensification of disinformation activities, it will be important to have an effective and coherent communication policy in the campaign that is adapted to specific groups of voters. These international tensions lead supporters of the European Union to see hope in a community that guarantees our security.

Małgorzata Molęda-Zdziech

Warsaw School of Economics – Team Europe Direct Poland