The election result in Saxony-Anhalt should come as no surprise. It fits into a trend that has been visible for at least a decade: Europe is shifting to the right and becoming increasingly radicalised. What was once on the political fringe is now often becoming mainstream reality: the brutalisation of public debate, increasingly extreme political positions, and the manipulation of negative emotions. In elections, those who use the harshest language and adopt the most uncompromising stances are beginning to enjoy the greatest chances of success. Why is this happening?

By Dr Małgorzata Bonikowska

The outcome of the elections in Saxony should not surprise anyone, as it is part of a trend that we have been seeing for at least a decade: Europe has been turning to the right and radicalising. What was once at the fringes of politics is often becoming a reality today – violent debate, extreme political attitudes, playing to negative emotions. In elections, it’s becoming the case that those who use the strongest language and stand out the most have the best chances. Why is that? 

Lech Wałęsa, leader of the Solidarity movement and recipient of the 1983 Nobel Peace Prize, has been saying for years that something has gone wrong in our western world: democracy and capitalism don’t work like they used to. In European welfare states, the middle class has been shrinking for at least four decades. Economists – such as Thomas Piketty, author of the best-selling book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, who referred, not coincidentally, to the work of Marx from two centuries ago – are sounding the alarm that this will inevitably lead to discontent among society. And this frustration is leading people to reject past leaders and look for alternatives, which is when populists enter the picture.

This process may be inevitable. Perhaps Europe will not avoid a return to the past, which it has managed to forget. In 2018, when Madeleine Albright, US Secretary of State in Bill Clinton’s Administration, published her book Fascism: A Warning, Europeans were surprised. We believed that we had defeated communism, fascism and Nazism for good. Europe believed that this way of thinking and type of politics was a thing of the past.

Madeleine Albright warned that the echoes of these times could return in a new form. Fascism is not just an ideological theory from the past, but a concrete way to gain and hold onto power by sowing conflicts, exploiting people’s anger and frustration, using hate speech and physical violence, claiming the right to represent an entire group or nation, and completely disregarding the rights of others. Is this what we are seeing in Europe today? 

Europeans, accustomed to their civil liberties and high standard of living, are becoming increasingly frustrated by the problems facing the Old Continent. At the same time, the development of modern technologies brings new challenges and fears, and social media, which only recently had been seen as a key element of democracy is now becoming a tool to undermine it. A century ago, political violence was visible on the streets: paramilitary organisations were active, marches took place and clashes ensued. Now people feel like they can get away with anything online – hate speech can be spread anonymously, sentiment radicalised and political opponents taken down. 

Russia is skilfully contributing to this chaos through large-scale disinformation activities. This is more effective than a military attack, because it can create divisions and pit us against each other, it fuels extreme attitudes that act as a springboard for politicians who propose to tear down what we have managed to build. Europe is in a state of war, both internally and with an external adversary. We have a difficult election year ahead, and in key EU countries at that: France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Greece and Finland. 

What can we do in this situation? First of all, start thinking. Be guided by common sense rather than emotions. Common sense tells us that cooperation is better than conflict and construction is better than destruction. Civil society organisations, with the skills and structures to be able to reach voters, can play a huge role in a ‘return to common sense’. There are lessons worth learning from the recent parliamentary elections in Hungary: if you want to convince people, you have to be active on social media, but also travel around the country and talk to people, convince them, reason with them. 

As the Polish writer Sławomir Mrożek once said: Tomorrow is tomorrow’s today. We are building our future now. Let’s not let the coming months go to waste, because a return to the past will be painful.

Małgorzata Bonikowska, PhD is a Polish political scientist, EU affairs expert and President of the Centre for International Relations and co-founder of the THINKTANK Center for Dialogue and Innovation. A university professor, author and frequent media commentator, she specialises in international affairs, European integration and public policy.