Tariffs, talks and bullies: Europe's social model is not for sale

On July 12th, Donald Trump announced a blanket 30% tariff against the EU (and Mexico) starting on August 1^st. For now, the EU holds its breath, keeps still, but prepares. At least, that is what we are told. According to some officials, and probably national capitals, they do not expect Trump to follow through. They 'trust the markets', and the economic rationality of the US President. The same US president who advertised a car on the White House grounds and is minting memecoins.

In 2008, Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia to 'protect' South Ossetia's independence, with little international response. In 2014, he invaded Crimea. Throughout those years, he made clear statements about his imperial ambitions, the tragical demise of the soviet empire, and the will of righting that wrong. Nevertheless, many in Europe chose to believe that Putin would not dare to blow out the bridges with his main trading partner. Ukrainians, and many from the Baltics and Poland warned otherwise. Up until the last moment, most in the EU pressed on with cheap Russian gas.

In 2016, Donald Trump won the US presidency for the first time. Running on a nationalist and populist agenda, he and his aides showed clear support for every Eurosceptic movement they could find. He publicly supported Brexit. He called the EU a foe on trade. He left, the words changed, but the US progressive decoupling from Europe did not. Then he came back.

In 2024, Donald Trump started his second presidency. He concluded that the EU was formed to 'screw' the United States. He also highlighted that the EU was 'nastier than China'. He repeatedly warned the EU that tariffs were coming. The EU was behind tech economic woes in the US. The EU's cheap drugs were behind the woes of US healthcare problems. Trump's tariffs did not just include tariffs. Food regulations banning dangerous and carcinogenic products that are common in the US were considered import restrictions and duties. Environmental, data, and customer protection: all seen as threats and tariffs, too.

Throughout the years, Trump has made it clear that the EU is a potential adversary, and as such, an enemy. His transactional view holds no room for alliances, simply for vassals. Nevertheless, many in Europe are again choosing to believe that Trump would not dare to blow out the bridges with one of his most important trading partners and ally. German chancellor Merz expressed hope of a reasonable deal, and so did Meloni. Business associations pressure Brussels for a quick good deal. Far right politicians blame Brussels for not letting them have a direct agreement.

Holding back and giving room to negotiations is one thing, and it is an important one, for the cost of a trade war would be massive on the already suffering EU economy. However, showing weakness and submission to a bully is another one. Appeasement will only increase the cost down the road. We already warned about this in April. These talks will not be solved with technical talks: the numbers Trump holds on tariffs are mostly magical made up nonsense, or as he used to say, alternative facts.

The Trump administration would ideally have the EU dismantled, or, at the very least, left harmless and disjointed. It is our workers' rights, our social protection, our affordable healthcare, our environmental and customer protection, that Trump considers a tariff to be eliminated. Are Europeans willing to do that? Are our representatives willing to do that? If the answer is no, then we need a change of strategy. We need to stop the bully. Even if it means sacrifices in the short run: the EU should deploy emergency measures to safeguard incomes and jobs, as ETUC demanded. Not just for us, but also for our fellow Americans under his increasingly autocratic rule, including the 70% of the voting age population who never voted for him. Europe's working and living standards are not for sale, and neither are our rights as customers, as workers, as citizens.