By Jean-Nicolas Beuze

From the Sahel to Syria, from Gaza to Ukraine, the European Union is encircled by crises that continue to drive mass displacement. These are not distant emergencies and protracted crises – they are Europe’s front yard. For EU policymakers, the takeaway is clear: delivering aid to find solutions for populations on the move and investing in regions facing extreme fragility risks is not just a moral duty, it is a strategic imperative. And the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) must reflect that.

No less than 26 countries affected by these crises surrounding Europe are currently under acute strain – grappling with war, economic collapse, climate shocks and other aspects of fragility. Nearly half the world’s refugees live in or near these conflict and volatile zones. Nationals from these countries now account for one-third of asylum claims in the EU – and that’s without counting the 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees already residing in the Union.

Migration pressures are growing, and Europe’s response must evolve. The projected drop in global official development assistance – from €200 billion in 2024 to under €150 billion by 2026 – is, in this respect, a short-sighted decision. While security and business competitiveness rightly receive increased budgets, underinvesting in stability and resilience beyond EU borders is a political gamble Europe cannot afford. While some argue that assisting displaced communities and their hosts is a matter of values and solidarity, it is also fundamentally about Europe’s long-term stability and prosperity.  

Managing population movements must begin long before people reach European borders. Deterrence at borders – whether through fences or legal hurdles – does not stop those fleeing bombs, persecution or desperation. If Europe wants migration that is orderly, predictable and manageable, it must engage upstream – addressing root causes such as poverty and armed violence; supporting and protecting internally displaced persons in their own country before they feel forced to cross a border; and, finding solutions for refugees in countries immediately neighbouring these hot spots.

This is not about idealism; it is about realpolitik. Aid policy should serve the Union’s geopolitical goals – reducing instability, strengthening economic and trade partnerships – and ultimately, preserving EU credibility on the global stage. Being a thought leader for which solidarity still means something, while ensuring benefits for its own people, is what sets it apart from other nations.

The EU’s swift and well-funded response to the war in Ukraine and the mass displacement it triggered – both internally and across its border – showed that the Union has learned key lessons from the 2015 Syria crisis. But the current scale, proximity and complexity of the belt of crises now unfolding around Europe demand an equally strategic and sustained response. Mounting security concerns and economic pressures make this even more urgent. EU Member States must meet the moment by equipping the Union with the necessary financial means to deliver on its ambitious but unavoidable goals. That begins with agreeing to an overall budget that exceeds the current 1% of Gross National Income (GNI), so that the EU can act decisively and sustainably in response to today’s realities.

This is why calculated, forward-looking decisions on the next MFF are so critical. UNHCR recommends concrete measures to ensure that investment to address forcible displacement is fully aligned with EU priorities:

• Secure a minimum of €2.3 billion annually for humanitarian aid so that when crises emerge, one can immediately respond and stop the suffering.
• Ring-fence at least 10% of the next international partnerships instrument for displacement and migration to stabilise people on the move closer to their home, especially in Mediterranean countries, before people feel forced to embark on dangerous journeys across the sea.

This is not only about spending more, but about spending with foresight ­­– allocating resources in ways that reduce downstream costs of having to deal with a power vacuum, missed economic investment opportunities and increased populations on the move.

With adequate resources, third countries that host displaced people will meet their needs – offering solutions pending a return home. External aid geared towards refugees has often been an opportunity to develop public services and to create jobs for underserved local populations in host countries. Europe’s whole-of-route approach requires investments as early as possible – in countries of origin and of transit. The goal is not just to reduce movements for the sake of it, but to find durable solutions for those on the move. This will directly serve European interests of curbing irregular – or what most refer to as illegal – arrivals at its border.  But it will also reduce the risk of people to fall prey to traffickers or embark on perilous journeys.

An integrated, well-resourced EU approach to forced displacement is not about philanthropy, it is about making an investment for Europe’s own future. When crises go unaddressed, they do not ‘just’ create human suffering. They destabilise regions and undermine trade and other partnerships. Having people compelled to move to Europe for their own safety are foreseeable outcomes of us having neglected situations earlier on.

At UNHCR, we have embraced the EU’s current pivot toward making aid more transactional and mobilising private capital for development through the Global Gateway initiative. We have long recognised that public finance must be used to mobilise private capital in providing sustainable responses to forced displacement. The Global Gateway can be transformative if displaced people and host communities are built into its design, not added as an afterthought.

The international system is evolving, and the housekeeping starts at home. With the Humanitarian Reset and UN80 on the horizon, we have a real opportunity to reform how aid is delivered against its promise – making it more efficient and effective at the same time. The EU is right to push for more accountability and better results. But without proper financial support, we will for sure fail on both counts.  

The choices made in the next MFF will shape the Union’s ability to manage its borders humanely, safeguard its internal cohesion and be a partner of choice for third countries. External aid must remain a strategic priority. It is the foundation for a more stable and prosperous Europe.

UNHCR’s latest recommendations for the next MFF are available here.